Tesla's Annual Vehicle Capacity Increased To Over 2.3 Million

Tesla, the world’s largest all-electric car manufacturer, once again increased its potential annual manufacturing output, recently exceeding 2,350,000 units, according to Q3 financial report.

That’s an increase of 325,000 compared to the previous report (Q2 2023). The year-over-year increase amounted to roughly 450,000.

This time, the change is associated with the Giga Shanghai plant, where the installed capacity increased by 200,000 (from over 750,000 to over 950,000 per year), and with the Giga Texas plant, where the Tesla Cybertruck’s installed capacity was estimated at over 125,000 units per year.

Of course, the installed manufacturing capacity and the actual production volume are two different things. Tesla’s production in Q3 amounted to 430,488 (up 18 percent year-over-year) – so less than in Q2, but the company explains that it “brought down several production lines for upgrades at various factories, which led to a sequential decline in production volumes”.

The average production volume during the past two quarters (Q2-Q3) amounted to over 450,000, which means that the company shouldn’t have any problems with reaching its annual goal of 1.8 million vehicles in 2023. Meanwhile, Tesla’s cumulative EV production (since 2008) reached 5 million units on September 17, 2023.

In this post, we will walk through Tesla’s EV manufacturing plants to see what’s new at each of the sites.

Tesla Factory in Fremont, California – up to 650,000/year

Tesla’s Fremont factory has the potential to produce up to 550,000 Model 3/Model Y a year, and up to 100,000 refreshed Model S/Model X. There is no change compared to Q2, but we are aware that the plant is undergoing upgrades.

Tesla Fremont Factory: Model S & X general assembly

Tesla Giga Nevada (Gigafactory 1) in Nevada

Tesla’s first gigafactory is a lithium-ion battery cell plant, which makes 2170-type cylindrical battery cells in partnership with Panasonic, as well as other products (drive units, power electronics, energy storage systems, and parts).

Production of 2170-type batteries is expected to increase by about 10 percent. The plant will be significantly expanded through a $3.6 billion investment to handle production of the 4680-type cells (100 GWh per year with a potential for more) and Tesla Semi electric trucks (potentially roughly 50,000 Tesla Semi per year).

The Tesla Semi’s status is “Pilot production” (no change here), described also as limited production by Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk.

Tesla Giga Nevada (Tesla Gigafactory 1)

Tesla Giga Nevada: Expansion Plans (Tesla Q4 2022 report)

Tesla Giga Shanghai (Gigafactory 3) in China – over 950,000/year

The Tesla Giga Shanghai plant has the potential to produce over 950,000 Model 3/Model Y per year (200,000 more than previously reported). We assume that the change to 950,000 units is more of a formal update rather than a physical upgrade, as the sales data already indicated that the plant can produce more than one million units annually. The plant remains the company’s export hub.

Tesla noted: “Other than scheduled downtime in Q3, our Shanghai factory has been successfully running near full capacity for several quarters, and we do not expect a meaningful increase in weekly production run rate.”

Tesla Giga Shanghai (Tesla Gigafactory 3)

Tesla Giga Shanghai: Body Shop (Tesla Q4 2022 report)

Tesla Giga Berlin (Gigafactory 4) in Germany – 375,000/year

Tesla Giga Berlin in Grünheide near Berlin, Germany has produced the Tesla Model Y (powered by 2170-type cylindrical battery cells) since March 2022.

In March, the company announced that the production rate reached 5,000 Tesla Model Y units per week. The capacity is now estimated at 375,000 annually (no change).

At some point in the future, the company is expected to start production of a new version powered by 4680-type cylindrical battery cells.

Tesla Giga Berlin (Tesla Gigafactory 4)

Tesla Giga Berlin: Tesla Model Y paint shop (Tesla Q4 2022 report)

Tesla Giga Texas (Gigafactory 5) in the US – over 375,000/year

Tesla Giga Texas in Austin started production of the Tesla Model Y in April 2022. The site produced two versions of the car – one, equipped with 4680-type cylindrical cells and a structural battery pack, and the “legacy” version with 2170-type batteries and non-structural batteries (similar to the Fremont plant).

According to the company, in May 2023, the plant achieved a production rate of 5,000 Model Y (all versions) per week.

Interestingly, in September, the 4680-type version of the Model Y was removed from the online configurator.

It was speculated that it happened due to the limited availability of the 4680-type battery cells, which are needed for the upcoming launch of the Tesla Cybertruck, but there could be other reasons.

By the way, in October, 4680-type battery production at the plant reached a cumulative level of 20 million units. We estimated that it might be about 1.8 GWh in total.

The most important thing is that the Tesla Cybertruck’s status changed from “tooling” to “pilot production” and customer deliveries of the first vehicles are scheduled for November 30, 2023. The estimated installed annual vehicle capacity is over 125,000.

Tesla noted: “At Gigafactory Texas, we began pilot production of the Cybertruck, which remains on track for initial deliveries this year. We are expecting the Model Y production rate in Texas to grow very gradually from its current level as we ramp additional supply chain needs in a cost-efficient manner.”

Tesla Giga Texas (Tesla Gigafactory 5)

Tesla Giga Texas: 4680 cell production (Tesla Q1 2023 report)

Tesla Giga Mexico (Gigafactory 6) in Mexico

In March 2023, Tesla announced that its sixth gigafactory plant will be built in Santa Catarina municipality near Monterrey (Nuevo Leon), Mexico.

The plant will be used for next-generation electric vehicles – potentially a mass market, affordable electric car, with annual production counted in the millions per year.

Initially, we heard that vehicle production might potentially start in 2025, but a recent report suggests that it might be later. Construction is expected to start in 2024.

Production sites (vehicles/battery systems)

Tesla’s total installed manufacturing capacity is more than 2,350,000 per year (up to 650,000 at the Tesla Factory, over 950,000 at the Giga Shanghai, over 375,000 at Giga Berlin, and over 375,000 Giga Texas).

• Tesla Factory in Fremont, California
  • Model S/X (capacity of up to 100,000 annually) Model S since mid-2012, Model X since late 2015
  • Model 3/Y (capacity of up to 550,000 annually now), Model 3 since mid-2017, Model Y since January 2020
  • Total output of up to 650,000 S/X/3/Y
• Tesla Gigafactory 1 in Nevada
  • related to lithium-ion cell, module and pack production, energy storage products and drive units/power electronics
  • nearby, there is also a Tesla Semi pilot facility
  • Semi status: “Pilot production” (undisclosed capacity, production since Q4 2022)
  • 4680-type cylindrical battery cell to be produced in the future (100 GWh/year)
  • Tesla Gigafactory 2 in New York
    • Related to solar, some energy storage products and charging equipment
    • Tesla Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, China
      • Model 3/Y (capacity of over 950,000 annually)
        Model 3 since late 2019, Model Y since December 2020
      • Tesla Gigafactory 4 in Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany, Europe
        
        • Model Y (capacity of over 375,000 annually)
          Model Y since March 2022
        • Tesla Gigafactory 5 in Austin, Texas
          
          • Model Y (capacity of over 250,000 annually)
            Model Y since April 2022
          • Cybertruck status: “Pilot production” (capacity of over 125,000 annually)
            unveiled in late 2019
          • 4680-type cylindrical battery cells (undisclosed rate)
          • Tesla Gigafactory 6 in Santa Catarina municipality near Monterrey (Nuevo Leon), Mexico
            
            • Announced on March 1, 2023
            • Tesla Kato Road pilot facility in Fremont, California
              • related to Tesla’s 4680-type cylindrical battery cells
                target: 10 GWh/year cell production
              • Tesla Megapack factory in Lathrop, California
                • announced in 2021 (target 40 GWh/year), production ramp-up already started
                • Tesla Megapack factory in Shanghai, China
                  
                  • announced in April 2023 (target 40 GWh/year, 10,000 Megapacks/year)
                    production start in Q2 2024
                  • Unassigned models
                    • “Next Gen Platform”: “in development”, unassigned
                    • Roadster: “in development”, unassigned
                      potentially will be assigned to the Fremont Factory (our guess)

                    
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