2030 petrol and diesel car ban report is ‘simplistic’, expert claims

Michael Gove grilled by Hartley-Brewer on car ban cost

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A new report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said the petrol and diesel car sales ban would have enormous consequences on the economy. It stated that the car ban, which is set to be introduced in 2030, could cost £400billion, more than five times the value of the benefits from the Government’s valuations.

The data also showed that there is also likely to be a massive loss of tax revenue of £5.8billion per year, on average, in the scenario of a ban in comparison to a no-ban scenario, as fuel duty and VAT dwindle away.

From the perspective of the average household, these additional costs over the period 2022 to 2050 amount to £27,400 or just under £1,000 per household per year from 2022 until 2050.

The report, funded by FairFuelUK, the Alliance of Britsh Drivers (ABD) and the Motorcycle Action Group (MAG), recommended that the Government launched an independent analysis of the costs and benefits.

However, Ben Nelmes, Chief Executive of New AutoMotive, criticised the report, saying its methodology was flawed.

He claimed: “The 2030 Ban Analysis report by FairFuelUK and CEBR is a catalogue of misinformation and magical thinking. 

“It fails to include fuel cost savings, while also assuming that EVs will remain the same price until 2050 and ICE cars will become twice as fuel efficient in that period – all of these claims are wrong.

“EVs are cheaper to run than petrol or diesel cars. 

Any short-term costs of switching will be offset by significant medium to long-term savings, and the transition itself is going to save UK motorists £193billion between now and 2050.

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“The calculations of the report itself are simplistic and also don’t consider the other important benefits that the 2030 ban on petrol and diesel brings.”

At present, the Government plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030, followed by a similar ban on plug-in hybrid vehicles five years later.

Petrol, diesel and hybrid HGVs over 26 tonnes could be banned from 2040, subject to a Government consultation.

The Government first introduced the “historic step towards net zero” in November 2020.

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It said the UK would be on course to be the fastest G7 country to decarbonise cars and vans.

The move was accompanied by a £1.8billion pledge to support greater uptake of zero emission vehicles for greener car journeys.

Around £1.3billion of this was a boost to the rollout of electric vehicle chargepoints for home use and to install them in communities and at motorway service stations.

Mr Nelmes continued: “Where are the billions of pounds of predicted cost savings to the NHS from reduced air pollution in towns and cities? 

“Where are the figures of the thousands of new jobs created in the growing EV sector?

“We can see that businesses reliant on fossil fuels and incumbent energy suppliers are resistant to the EV transition because it will disrupt their business and profits.

“This isn’t a good enough reason to create a report to put consumers off making the switch themselves. 

“The facts show that switching to an electric vehicle is overwhelmingly positive for individual motorists – be that in cost, health, or environmental benefits.” 

Craig McKinlay MP, chair of the FairFuel APPG and Net Zero Scrutiny Group, warned that the ban could lead to “disaster” were it to go ahead.

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